OC Housing Market Update

 

  • The active listing inventory dropped by 389 homes in the past two-weeks, down 8%, and now totals 4,546, the lowest level since March 2018. Last year, there were 6,395 homes on the market, 1,849 more than today, or an extra 41%.

 

  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 221 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 10%, its largest drop of the year, and now totals 1,949. Last year, there were 1,508 pending sales, 23% fewer than today.

 

  • The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 68 days to 70, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days). It was at 127 days last year and climbing, substantially different compared to today.

 

  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 46 days. This range represents 36% of the active inventory and 54% of demand.

 

  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 54 days, also a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.

 

  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 73 days, a slight Seller’s Market.

 

  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time increased from 79 to 120 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 125 to 117 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 285 to 223 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 387 to 518 days.

 

  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 37% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.

 

  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 1.2% of all listings and 1.2% of demand. There are only 18 foreclosures and 36 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 54 total distressed homes on the active market, down 6 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 66 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.

 

  • There were 2,242 closed residential resales in November, 10% more than November 2018’s 2,047 closed sales. November marked a 13% drop compared to October 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.6% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.5%. That means that 98.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

 

Steven Thomas
Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences